Indian rice exports to the United States may become more expensive as President Donald Trump signals higher tariffs, prompting concerns over trade talks, pricing pressures, and basmati rice competitiveness.
India, the world’s largest rice exporter, could see its shipments to the United States become significantly more expensive if President Donald Trump proceeds with plans to impose higher import taxes, citing allegations that India is dumping rice in the US market.
Industry executives said the proposed measures were unlikely to materially reduce export volumes but warned of wider repercussions. These could include price pressures in alternative markets, attempts by importers to divert shipments, and renewed strain in bilateral trade negotiations, where agriculture and dairy imports remain politically sensitive issues in India.
Trump earlier this month suggested that additional duties could be levied on Indian rice exports, claiming they were being sold below market value. Speaking at a White House roundtable with farming officials on December 8, he questioned India’s pricing practices, stating that rice exports should not be “dumping” into the US market and asserting that tariffs would “solve the problem in two minutes.”
The United States has already sharply increased import duties on Indian basmati rice to 50 per cent, up from 10 per cent previously, significantly eroding its price competitiveness compared with suppliers such as Pakistan, which faces lower tariffs. Some reports indicate that the cumulative import duty on Indian rice now stands at around 61 per cent.
Industry sources said any further tariffs would most likely be passed on to importers and consumers, pushing up retail prices rather than suppressing demand. They noted that the bulk of Indian rice exports to the US consists of premium basmati varieties, primarily consumed by diaspora communities.
Indian exporters have firmly rejected the dumping allegation, arguing that basmati rice is a distinct, higher-value product grown exclusively in the Indian subcontinent and shipped only against confirmed orders.
“The Indian rice that goes to the US is mainly for Asians, Middle Eastern and Far Eastern people. Americans are not habituated to eating basmati rice,” said Prem Garg, president of the India Rice Exporters Federation. Garg added that basmati rice exports are shipped in containerised consignments and packed into smaller retail units, a structure that leaves no room for dumping practices.
In the 2024-25 financial year ending in March, India exported 20.2 million metric tonnes of rice globally, including 335,554 tonnes to the United States. Of that volume, 274,213 tonnes were basmati rice.
The dumping accusations come amid ongoing trade negotiations between New Delhi and Washington, where progress has stalled over US demands for greater access to India’s agriculture and dairy markets, sectors that carry strong political sensitivities due to farmer opposition.
Earlier this year, Washington imposed import tariffs of up to 50 per cent on Indian goods under its so-called reciprocal tariff framework, citing India’s taxes on US products and its continued purchases of Russian crude oil. While the US accounts for only about 4 per cent of India’s total rice export volumes, it remains a high-value destination due to its demand for premium-grade basmati rice. Conversely, Indian rice makes up roughly a quarter of total US rice imports, positioning India as the second-largest supplier after Thailand.
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